![]() After all, it’s called Northern Virginia. A lot of people I’ve talked to are inclined to include all of Fairfax County regardless of what other criteria was used, so this was somewhat expected. Even accounting for the above, there’s a noticeable drop once you leave the county. About 70 percent of the results could be explained by this single variable. This was the most obvious factor, and to no one’s surprise it’s the most influential. Now that we have all the percentages and raw data, is there any method behind the madness? To figure out what drove people’s responses, I ran regression analyses on the results with various census data and got the following significant factors, starting with the most important: Why is a place part of Northern Virginia? Going by the survey results and population density data, one could argue for a restrictive definition of the area that contains McLean, Tyson’s Corner, Vienna, Fairfax, Burke, Springfield, and points closer. Reston, even further out, was considered NoVA by over 95 percent of respondents. Despite that, the most frequently-included place was the City of Fairfax, a good five miles away from the proposed demarcation. On the other hand, I have heard people who claim that Northern Virginia only consists of land within the Beltway. Residents of Fauquier, Spotsylvania, and Stafford Counties all have longer average commute times than those in Fairfax County as people move further and further away from DC. While those towns may not feel like a part of Northern Virginia, they still contribute to the region. Fewer than one percent of respondents included all four of those places. The government’s definition doesn’t really work so wellĪccording to the Office of Management and Budget, the Washington Metropolitan Statistical Area contains Front Royal (10 percent NoVA), Warrenton (11 percent), Fredericksburg (9.6 percent), and even Spotsylvania (2.6 percent). The consensus boundary of Northern Virginia. Overall, it would be a fairly reasonable definition, with the exception of perhaps including South Riding to make the border look prettier. There’s an over 20 percentage point dropoff from those places to anywhere outside that boundary. ![]() If one were to go by majority rule, the border of Northern Virginia would run from Woodbridge to Manassas, along the Fairfax County border to Dulles Airport, and then northwestward to Leesburg. Not visible: Winchester (7.1 percent), Front Royal (10.4 percent), Strasburg (2.1 percent), Stafford (14.9 percent), Culpeper (5.7 percent), Fredericksburg (9.6 percent), King George (2.8 percent), Spotsylvania (2.6 percent), Charlottesville (2.4 percent), Richmond (1.4 percent). ![]() ![]() I also gave them the option to include their ZIP Code so I could analyze the data by the respondent’s location. I created a Google Forms survey where I gave people a list of 50 places in Virginia, ranging all the way from Arlington to Ashburn to Richmond, and asked them if they considered each one part of “NoVA”. I started to wonder if it’s possible to come up with a unified definition to end the arguments once and for all. This led to an animated discussion about whether that town was part of NoVA, and what constituted the region. Some months ago, I was at a party where one attendee lamented not living in Northern Virginia and having to drive back home all the way to Centreville. ![]()
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